Bold warning: Long Island’s flu numbers are rising fast, signaling a tough season ahead. In a single week, lab-confirmed flu cases on Long Island more than doubled, according to state data, suggesting Nassau and Suffolk counties could face sustained activity in the weeks to come.
Experts warn that after the holiday period, we should expect a notable uptick in cases. Dr. David Hirschwerk, medical director at North Shore University Hospital in Manhasset, noted that a significant rise is likely in the near future and compared current levels to last year, when a steep incline toward mid-December was observed. He added that this year’s flu activity and hospitalizations are somewhat higher than at the same time last year.
Infectious disease specialists have cautioned that the season could be severe. A key driver is the emergence of the H3N2 variant and its subclade K, which began circulating after this year’s flu vaccine was developed. This variant has been responsible for the majority of flu cases in Japan and the United Kingdom and has fueled concerns about the season’s trajectory.
Hirschwerk also pointed out that RSV and COVID-19 are circulating at lower levels than they were at this point last year. Nevertheless, the holiday period and the pattern of social gatherings typical of it can boost transmission of respiratory viruses.
Latest state figures show a sharp week-over-week rise in confirmed cases: Suffolk County recorded 562 cases for the week ending Nov. 22, up from 223 the prior week, while Nassau County logged 726 cases, up from 378. Statewide, confirmed flu cases rose as well, though many people with flu symptoms do not get tested or treated, so the real number is likely higher.
COVID-19 hospitalizations rose 2% to 292 for the week ending Nov. 22, while RSV increased 21% to 152. Flu cases jumped 99% to 413. Vaccination uptake remains relatively low: about 20% of Nassau County residents and 17% of Suffolk County residents have received the flu vaccine.
Public health guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continues to emphasize vaccination for everyone over 6 months old.
Pediatric guidance emphasizes the seriousness of flu for children. Dr. Eve Meltzer Krief of Allied Physicians Group’s Huntington Village Pediatrics highlighted that last year saw 280 influenza-associated pediatric deaths nationwide and 27 in New York State—the highest totals ever recorded in a single season. Most of these children were not fully vaccinated, and many did not have underlying conditions making them vulnerable.
Vaccination significantly lowers the risk of severe illness, hospitalization, and death from influenza, even when the vaccine is not a perfect match for circulating strains, Dr. Krief noted.
With the current trajectory, experts say now is a good time to get vaccinated. Dr. Hirschwerk summed it up: “We are probably going to see a real climb in flu cases soon. There’s no time like now to get it.”
Background: Lisa joined Newsday as a staff writer in 2019 and has previously reported on politics, government, and general assignment for amNewYork, the New York Daily News, and the Asbury Park Press.
